August 3, 2020

InSysBio has received a new set of results in framework of development of QSP model of COVID-19 describing virus and host cell life cycles, innate and adoptive immune response and possible therapeutic treatments.

Immune Response was introduced in empiric way as was described in materials available at https://github.com/insysbio/covid19-qsp-model

Results:

Simulating model version without Immune Response induction demonstrates that model is able to reproduce self curing dynamics. Indeed,

• There is a threshold in virus initial concentration. The values above the threshold lead to substantial steady state virus load. The values below the threshold do not allow detect virus in sputum at any time, i.e. viral load tends to steady state value equal to 0.
• ODE system has 1 unstable and 2 stable steady states. One of the stable steady states correspond to 0 viral load and other corresponds to very substantial viral load.
• Model is able to describe self curing dynamics, i.e., viral load tends to 0 when initial virus concentration is below threshold. If initial virus concentration is above threshold then virtual patient is being infected and viral load tends to very high value with time.

Limitations of the version of the sub-model:

• IR was described in empiric way;
• antiviral IFN type I effect was not implemented;
• sub-model describes scenario when 100% of lungs are infected with virus but most patients demonstrate partial lung injury only;
• uncertainty in parameter values has not been explored.

About InSysBio

InSysBio is a Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) company located in Moscow, Russia (INSYSBIO LLC) and Edinburgh, UK (INSYSBIO UK LIMITED). InSysBio was founded in 2004 and has an extensive track record of helping pharmaceutical companies to make right decisions on the critical stages of drug research and development by application of QSP modeling. InSysBio’s innovative QSP approach has already become a part of the drug development process implemented by our strategic partners: there are more than 100 completed projects in collaboration with leaders of pharmaceutical industry. For more information about InSysBio, its solutions and services, visit www.insysbio.com.

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